(The Center Square)–Democratic U.S. Senate candidate state Rep. James Talarico has launched a $25 million statewide initiative to reach Black voters six weeks before election day.
The initiative is multifaceted and launched as Talarico continues to lead Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the polls. A Real Clear Politics average of multiple recent polls has Talarico beating Paxton by three points. The once strong Republican seat has been labeled toss-up by Real Clear Politics and other organizations.
“There is no way to win Texas without sustained, on-the-ground engagement in Black communities,” Talarico said. His campaign’s plan “further solidifies our commitment to organize and energize Black Texans who have been taken for granted for far too long by both political parties.”
His campaign has launched a “Souls to the Polls” initiative, expanding outreach primarily to Black churches in Texas. It’s similar to a Souls to the Polls initiative launched in Virginia in 2021 by former Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrat Terry McAuliffe. The initiative also primarily targeted Black churches, The Center Square reported. McAuliffe lost to Republican Glenn Youngkin. Critics have argued Souls to the Polls campaigns violate IRS rules governing tax-exempt entities, including churches.
“Black churches have carried Texans to the polls for generations,” said Carl Davis, founder of C.D. Davis and Associates, who is running the Souls to the Polls initiative. “Our job is to make sure every voter who hears the call to vote on Souls to the Polls Sunday has a plan to vote and makes their voice heard. Wherever Black people of faith gather, we’ll be there.”
Talarico’s campaign also launched a door-to-door canvassing operation in partnership with the Texas Together Coordinated Campaign. It’s also invested in BlackTOP, an initiative of the Texas Organizing Project PAC, to turn out Black voters in Harris County.
This week, Talarico for Texas launched a multi-million-dollar digital, radio and print ad buy in Black media statewide. His campaign’s newest radio ad, “Legacy,” is slated to run on gospel, talk, hip-hop, R&B and news stations statewide. His digital ad, “Afford It,” is airing statewide on digital platforms and TV. The campaign is also running ads in historic Black newspapers statewide.
Three Black-owned firms are leading the latest paid communications outreach. They include Bryson Gillette, a strategic communications firm founded by Bill Burton, the former press secretary for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign who also served as deputy press secretary in the Obama White House. They also include Foston International Communications, based in Fort Bend County, which ran ads for former U.S. Rep. Robert (Beto) O’Rourke’s 2018 U.S. Senate campaign and 2020 gubernatorial campaign, and Advantage Communications Group of Houston led by Linda Brown. Brown was the former press secretary for Rev. Jesse Jackson and senior advisor to the late U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee and the late Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner among others.
Talarico is leading Paxton among Hispanic and Black voters by 19 points and 77 points, respectively, according to the most recent polls. Paxton leads Talarico among white voters by 19 points.
Talarico is leading Paxton by more than 30 points among independents, according to the latest Texas Public Opinion Research poll.
Talarico has said throughout the campaign that he recognizes there’s a hesitancy among Black voters but his campaign is committed to reaching them, as well as Republicans and all voters. At a campaign event at a large church in Houston in July, Talarico was confronted by Black voters who said they “didn’t trust him” and that he couldn’t win without their vote. Kandice Webber, an organizer with Houston’s Black Lives Matter, demanded that he answer her questions or “suffer the consequences.” Voters raised questions about reparations for descendants of slaves and police brutality.
Black voters and others have also expressed opposition to Talarico’s pro-transgender policies and comments about multiple sexes and genders and God being “non-binary,” according to multiple polls. In the last several years, Black and Hispanic Democratic politicians left the party over these issues, arguing the party no longer represented them, The Center Square reported. By the 2024 election, Texas Democrats suffered massive losses with politicians and voters leaving the party and largely Hispanic districts at the border overwhelmingly voting Republican.
Two years later, a growing percentage of Texas voters who were polled who previously voted for President Donald Trump now say they are voting for Democrats. The primary reason they give is Trump administration economic policies they say have made life unaffordable, including tariffs and the Iran war, The Center Square reported.
Talarico’s campaign says its Black voter outreach plan “is the largest of its kind in modern Texas history.”
Paxton’s campaign hasn’t launched a comparable initiative. Paxton’s campaign office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
