(Just The News)—Several contests for the U.S. House in California could determine the partisan control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections.
In November 2025, California voters approved Proposition 50, a measure to redraw congressional districts in California to net as many as four additional seats for Democrats in the state. Many of these races in these states are among the most hotly contested in the nation.
The Center Square spoke to candidates and party organizers in these critical districts.
District 22
U.S. Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, is seeking reelection against Democratic candidate Randy Villegas. The Central Valley has seen tight competition between the two candidates after Villegas defeated Democratic challenger Jasmeet Baines.
Villegas called for a progressive income tax structure that “ensures millionaires and billionaires pay their fair share.” He also said working class families should get relief from rising gas prices and said he would support a federal gas tax suspension.
“Right now our fuel prices, our prices at the pump are exploding,” Villegas told The Center Square. “We’ve got to use every single tool possible to provide immediate relief for our working families.”
In California, the average gas price on Thursday was $6.23 per gallon, according to AAA. California has consistently seen the highest prices in the country during recent years. Thursday’s national average was $4.33.
Villegas also slammed Valadao for his vote to pass the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. He called for reversal of the bill’s proposed tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires but said he supported policies like no tax on tips or overtime.
“My opponent’s vote on this bill to give tax breaks to the richest in our country is ridiculous,” Villegas told The Center Square. “We need a tax policy that is going to center our working families and that’s going to bring down costs for our working families, not billionaires.”
Valadao did not respond to The Center Square’s requests for an interview. However, Matthew Casarez, executive director of the Tulare County Republican Party, told The Center Square that Valadao’s record in Congress is resonating with voters. He pointed to the congressman’s vote for the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”
“[Voters] see Congressman Valadao’s record on taxes. They know he is for affordability,” Casarez said.
Casarez acknowledged high gas prices across the country are related to the conflict with Iran. He said voters recognize those issues are temporary.
“The biggest jump in prices happened over the course of four years under Joe Biden,” Casarez told The Center Square. “They realize that a lot of this is temporary because of the situation in Iran.”
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, California’s 22nd Congressional District is home to a 27.6% foreign-born population, nearly double the overall U.S. foreign born population.
Immigration is a central issue between the two candidates in the Central Valley. Villegas slammed the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement efforts and called for comprehensive reform across the country.
“Any ICE agent who has violated the constitution and communities should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law,” Villegas said. “I want to fight to pass comprehensive humane immigration reform with a path to citizenship, so our neighbors no longer have to live in the shadows.”
Casarez said Valadao supports the Trump administration’s efforts to pursue criminals in the community. He pointed to a surge of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement activity across the Central Valley over the previous week, which immigrant advocacy organizations have condemned.
“If you are a law abiding American citizen, you don’t have to worry about law enforcement,” Casarez said.
Valadao has more than $4.9 million in campaign contributions, compared to Villegas with $2.6 million, according to the Federal Election Commission. The incumbent Republican received $299,000 from Emmer Majority Builders, a group associated with House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Delano, Minn. Valadao also received $44,000 from the Hispanic Leadership Trust Partnership and $67,000 from WinRed, an online fundraising platform for Republican candidates.
Villegas received more than $37,000 from the California House Majority Fund, $20,000 from the Blue Wave California Victory Fund and $5,000 from the Jane Fonda Climate PAC.
District 40
California’s 40th Congressional District has two incumbent Republicans at the top of the ticket. U.S. Reps. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, and Young Kim, R-Anaheim, are vying for reelection in the district, which was redrawn as part of Proposition 50.
Calvert did not respond to The Center Square’s requests for an interview. But he previously touted his record bringing funds for infrastructure projects to the district, dating back to his first election in 1992.
“Ken has successfully secured more than a billion dollars in federal funding for transportation, water, and clean air projects for Riverside County,” Calvert’s website reads.
Young Kim was not available for an interview in time for publication. She previously called for lowering gas prices and increasing the domestic energy supply.
“Working families are struggling to make ends meet, and I’m working to lower the cost of gas, groceries, and utilities and make it easier for families to get ahead,” Kim said on her campaign website.
During an earlier interview, Calvert said gas prices would go down once the tensions of the U.S. conflict in Iran settled. He said the conflict was “necessary” given intelligence information at the time.
“This action will end relatively soon,” Calvert said. “So I think you’re going to see declining price of oil and gasoline prices in the relatively near future.”
Calvert asserted he is a “consistent conservative” compared to Kim. Both Calvert and Ken consistently voted against resolutions to end Trump’s military authority in Iran and his tariff capabilities.
“You can’t just change your position from day to day,” Calvert said in an interview.
Jason Mills, a communications consultant with the Orange County Democratic Party, said the group is not organizing in the race between Calvert and Kim. Orange County, where Kim lives, is one of three major counties in the newly drawn 40th Congressional District. Calvert lives in Riverside County.
“Both Young Kim and Ken Calvert are MAGA Republicans,” Mills told The Center Square. “We are not mobilizing Democrats to vote for either of those candidates.”
Mills dismissed concerns about two Republican candidates on the ballot would prevent voters from turning out. He said rising gas prices, tariff policies and healthcare cuts are pushing voters to the polls.
“Democrats are motivated at the national level to vote against Donald Trump,” Mills said. “That is going to be what motivates voters in CA-40 rather than having any Democratic standard bearer in Congress.”
He said polling in state legislative races typically held by Republicans across Orange County is trending in favor of Democrats this year. Mills said having two Republicans at the top of the ticket in California’s 40th district will ensure that one loses reelection.
“Either way we see it as a victory because we’re losing one more Trump Republican out of Congress,” Mills said.
Kim has more than $8.8 million in campaign contributions, compared to Calvert with $6.1 million, according to the FEC. She received more than $858,000 from WinRed, $404,000 from Grow the Majority and $115,000 from GOP Winning Women 2026.
Calvert received $799,000 from the Calvert Victory Fund, a joint fundraising committee to support the incumbent Congressman. He also received more than $138,000 from Grow the Majority and $32,000 from Flexpoint Media.
District 41
U.S. Rep. Linda Sanchez, D-Whittier, and Santa Monica Republican Mitch Clemmons are duking it out in the race for California’s redrawn 41st Congressional District. Clemmons said he was motivated to run when he realized the new district included his hometown and his plumbing company.
“I have, I guess, a little bit of name recognition to a small extent in those cities, and I have grown up in those areas. And I want to see better things for the cities in my district,” Clemmons told The Center Square.
Clemmons called for reduced taxes and fewer business regulations. He said businesses in his district have been crippled by California tax policies and minimum wage requirements.
“It’s much harder to compete as a small business owner as opposed to a company like McDonald’s who can automate and absorb certain costs,” Clemmons said.
In Congress, he said he would support the Trump administration’s roll back of certain environmental policies to increase energy production and applauded the prescription drug deals through TrumpRx.
Clemmons said the administration’s tariff policies are essential to offsetting income taxes. He supported a long-term tariff plan to lower taxes and increase domestic production jobs.
“We could take these tariffs that we’re bringing in and utilize that in a way to not only have a balanced budget, but a budget where we’re saving money so we can start paying down our debt,” Clemmons told The Center Square.
Sanchez has called for ending the Trump administration’s tariff policies and keeping control of the mechanism with Congress. She introduced the Strengthening Social Security Act, legislation that would increase social security payroll taxes on high earners.
“She has been a great representative for her constituents, always standing up for working families and working class folks in her area,” Mills said. “Even though she has always had these small portions of Orange County, she can always be counted on to stand up for families.”
Sanchez has $1.6 million over Clemmons with $5,000, according to the FEC. She received $11,000 from Blue Wave California, $5,000 from the American Council of Life Insurers PAC and $10,000 from the American Crystal Sugar Company PAC.
Clemmons contributed $500 to his own campaign, according to the FEC. He also received $1,000 from Pat Dye, a retired resident of Mohave Valley, Ariz.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
