Click here to view original web page at www.zerohedge.com
Morgan Stanley has called the top on Omicron, or at least offered a range of when the peak might arrive.
In their latest note to clients, a team led by equity analyst Matthew Harrison projected that the omicron wave in North America would likely peak within 3-6 weeks, which would place the peak of this wave at a slightly later point than last year’s winter top in new cases identified.
By using an “established relationship” between the virus’s effective reproduction rate and the number of new case, the bank’s analysts can look at the situation in South Africa, and help postulate what might happen in Europe and the US.
The case wave reaches a peak when R returns to 1. Currently in South Africa, R is below 1 and lower than last week, reflecting the steep decrease in cases. R is still growing (and thus cases are as well) in the US, UK,and EU, so, according to Morgan Stanley, the peak isn’t in yet.
The bank used data from South Africa as a basis for its projections for the US and Europe. For example, it took South Africa 4-5 weeks to reach peak cases (mid-Nov to mid-Dec), which is faster than Delta (~9 weeks). And R peaked ~2-3 weeks ahead of the case peak and decreased from ~2 to ~1 in 20 days.
Assuming a similar trajectory in the US, Morgan Stanley laid out its bull base and bear cases for the omicron wave in the US. And here’s a comparison of the rate of viral reproduction in the US and South Africa. The MS team explained that their bull case assumes a peak 1-2 weeks from now, while their bear case would mean the peak might be as many as 8 weeks distant. The note also included some insights about omicron’s ability to […]
They’re Trying to Shut Us Down
Over the last several months, I’ve lost count of how many times the powers-that-be have tried to shut us down. They’ve sent hackers at us, forcing us to take extreme measures on web security. They sent attorneys after us, but thankfully we’re not easily intimidated by baseless accusations or threats. They’ve even gone so far as to make physical threats. Those can actually be a bit worrisome but Remington has me covered.
For us to continue to deliver the truth that Americans need to read and hear, we ask you, our amazing audience, for financial assistance. We have a Giving Fuel page to help us pay the bills. It’s brand new so don’t be discouraged by the lack of donations there. It’s a funny reality that the fewer the donations that have been made, the less likely people are willing to donate to it. One would think this is counterintuitive, but sometimes people are skeptical because they think that perhaps there’s a reason others haven’t been donating. In our situation, we’re just getting started so please don’t be shy if you have the means to help.
Thank you and God bless!
JD Rucker