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Morgan Stanley has called the top on Omicron, or at least offered a range of when the peak might arrive.
In their latest note to clients, a team led by equity analyst Matthew Harrison projected that the omicron wave in North America would likely peak within 3-6 weeks, which would place the peak of this wave at a slightly later point than last year’s winter top in new cases identified.
By using an “established relationship” between the virus’s effective reproduction rate and the number of new case, the bank’s analysts can look at the situation in South Africa, and help postulate what might happen in Europe and the US.
The case wave reaches a peak when R returns to 1. Currently in South Africa, R is below 1 and lower than last week, reflecting the steep decrease in cases. R is still growing (and thus cases are as well) in the US, UK,and EU, so, according to Morgan Stanley, the peak isn’t in yet.
The bank used data from South Africa as a basis for its projections for the US and Europe. For example, it took South Africa 4-5 weeks to reach peak cases (mid-Nov to mid-Dec), which is faster than Delta (~9 weeks). And R peaked ~2-3 weeks ahead of the case peak and decreased from ~2 to ~1 in 20 days.
Assuming a similar trajectory in the US, Morgan Stanley laid out its bull base and bear cases for the omicron wave in the US. And here’s a comparison of the rate of viral reproduction in the US and South Africa. The MS team explained that their bull case assumes a peak 1-2 weeks from now, while their bear case would mean the peak might be as many as 8 weeks distant. The note also included some insights about omicron’s ability to […]
Too Few Are Telling the Truth
Not long ago, conservative media was not beholden to anyone. Today, most sites are stuck on the Big Tech gravy train.
I’ll keep this short. The rise of Pandemic Panic Theater, massive voter fraud, and other “taboo” topics have neutered a majority of conservative news sites. You’ll notice they are very careful about what topics they tackle. Sure, they’ll attack Critical Race Theory, Antifa, and the Biden-Harris regime, but you won’t see them going after George Soros, Bill Gates, the World Economic Forum, or the Deep State, among others.
The reason is simple. They are beholden to Big Tech, and Big Tech doesn’t allow certain topics to be discussed or they’ll cut you off. Far too many conservative news outlets rely on Google, Facebook, and Twitter for the bulk of their traffic. They depend on big checks from Google ads to keep the sites running. I don’t necessarily hold it against them. We all do what we need to do to survive. I just wish more would do like we have, which is to cut out Big Tech altogether.
We don’t get Google checks. We don’t have Facebook or Twitter buttons on our stories. We don’t have a YouTube Channel (banned), and Instagram profile (never made one), or a TikTok (no thanks, CCO). We’re not perfect, but we’re doing everything we can to not owe anything to anyone… other than our readers. We owe YOU the truth. We owe YOU the facts that others won’t reveal about topics that others won’t tackle. And we owe America, this great land that allows us to take hold of these opportunities.
Like I said, I don’t hold other conservative sites under too much scrutiny over their choices. It’s easy for people to point fingers when we’re not the ones paying their bills or supporting their families. I just wish there were more who would break away. Today, only a handful of other major conservative news outlets have broken away from the Big Tech teat. Of course, we need help.
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