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Economists predict the future course of economic events to show we have a sense of humor. If we could do so accurately, we’d all be very rich, and we’re not; we’re comfortable, but not fantastically rich (except in our enjoyment of the dismal science).
Why can’t we predict the future? Because the world is a complicated place, and millions of things are occurring at once. For example, we know that if nothing else changes, and the government increases the money supply, price rises will be the inevitable result. But we can never rely upon the ceteris paribus (all else equal) assumption that this will be the only alteration in the economy. People might stop buying as much as before, saving for a rainy day. If so, the tendency for more money chasing the same amount of goods and services to instill price rises will be somewhat ameliorated.
By how much? That all depends upon the rate of decrease in buying, and we have no crystal ball on that one. We can’t even determine if the Fed or the central bank will increase the stock of money in circulation. The future course of inflation depends upon what side of the bed Fed officials get out of, and we have no idea about that either. Quite possibly, they themselves don’t know. We are fortunate to have economic law, but that only takes us so far.
Consider another example. Economic law tells us that an increase of the level at which the minimum wage is pegged will increase unemployment of low skilled workers, provided that nothing else changes. But things are forever changing. It is quite possible that as the minimum wage rises, an innovation will come along that increases the productivity of unskilled workers. If so, if this force is powerful enough, and if […]
Yes, We Need Your Help
I hate being “that guy” who asks people to donate because I think our conservative news network is so crucial, but here I am…
When I left my cushy corporate job in 2017, I did so knowing that my family would have to make sacrifices. But I couldn’t continue to watch the nation slip into oblivion and was inspired by President Trump’s willingness to fight the good fight even at his own personal expense. What I didn’t realize then is that conservative media would be so heavily attacked, canceled, and defunded that the sacrifices would be extreme.
Many in this nation are struggling right now even though we weren’t struggling just a few years ago. I’m not alone. But I wake up every morning and operate the sites we’ve been able to build because there’s really no other choice. I refuse to be beholden to Big Tech like so many other conservative news outlets, which is why you won’t see Google ads here. With that said, it’s often challenging to pay the bills and it’s even harder to expand so we can get the America First message out to a wider audience.
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