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Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,
I generally hate FOMC meeting days. Despite all the preparation you’ve done, most of us seem to spend the hours ahead of the decision at 2pm and the press conference at 2:30 second guessing everything. Staring at the tape trying to divine some information that you’ve missed. That isn’t made any easier in what has been an extremely volatile tape with intraday swings that are as violent and large as I’ve seen in a long time. We will come back to the Fed in a moment, but there is a consensus, which I generally agree with, that Fed days tend to support risk assets . That whatever fears we have built up will be assuaged when Chair Powell finally addresses us. Microsoft
Microsoft’s earnings hit the tape and the stock dropped almost 5% dragging the Nasdaq 100 futures down to almost the lows they hit on Monday (you had to be pretty quick to buy some here). The conference call turned Microsoft around and the Nasdaq 100 is back to almost where it started the week. On top of the Fed, we need to digest TSLA earnings tonight (2% of S&P 500, 4.2% of Nasdaq 100) and AAPL tomorrow (6.7% of S&P 500 and 12.1% of Nasdaq 100). Capitulation or All-in?
I read a lot about how Monday was a capitulation event. It does have that feel and was a tradeable bottom (as was last night’s post close fiasco). I continue to try and sell rips and nibble at dips here.
Given my “ traditional valuation matters ” thesis, I am most concerned about the ARKK and QQQ type of stocks. It is particularly difficult to sort out what part of these moves is repricing in its own right and response to potential […]
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