(Daily Signal)—The restoration of law and order in America is happening in large part because of President Donald Trump, in particular, his insistence that immigration laws be enforced and criminal illegal aliens be deported.
The administration should double and triple down on this message. America’s return to normalcy is contingent on making border security and deportations a top priority.
This much is undeniable: Trump’s deportations and focus on border security have run alongside a remarkable national drop in crime. To dismiss this as a mere coincidence is as absurd as when we were told there was no crime surge following the George Floyd riots and police defunding in 2020 and the explosion of border crossings during the Joe Biden presidency.
The media—always quick to reinforce whatever narrative Democrats and the Left choose to peddle—have mostly tried to wave away the connection between crime and immigration law enforcement. They’ve run misleading headlines saying that Trump’s deportations are not targeting criminals—let’s leave aside the fact that all illegal aliens have broken U.S. laws—and that if they are, then the numbers of criminal aliens is negligible, they say.
But that’s not true.
Earlier in October, Independent Women President Carrie Lukas wrote about how it would be a mistake to take plummeting crime for granted and linked at least some of the good news on crime directly to Trump’s immigration policies.
“Five thousand Americans are still living, working and loving their families because of policy changes that have brought down crime rates to historic lows,” Lukas wrote. “It is difficult to comprehend the one-year, 18% drop in the homicide rate from 2024 to 2025. Still, that dry statistic adds up to thousands of families—the equivalent of nearly one 9/11 — spared from mourning that would have been unavoidable if the Biden-era approach to crime and border policies had been in place these past 18 months.”
Lukas further explained that the fast-dropping crime rates are not random happenstance and that even the most conservative measures of how much mass deportation has led to reduced crime show that it had a profound effect on our country.
This change was the result of a dramatic policy shift.
The Trump administration is taking people off the streets who have not only committed crimes but are more likely to commit further ones in the future.
And that work continues even years after Trump was elected.
For instance, Immigration and Customs Enforcement nabbed over 2,000 illegal aliens in New York in July and August as part of Operation Rotten Apple—with no help from local authorities like New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, of course. Among those arrested were “murderers, rapists, pedophiles, drug traffickers, and violent assailants,” according to Department of Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin.
The arrests included, according to DHS:
“- Bogdan Detrovich Gren, an illegal alien from Ukraine, whose criminal history includes convictions for kidnapping, abduction resulting in death, criminal possession of a weapon, and murder.
– Andreas Bernal Chiquito, an illegal alien from Colombia, whose criminal history includes arrests for course of sexual conduct against a child and act in manner to injure child less than 17.
– Noel Celestino Lopez Martinez, an illegal alien from Mexico, whose criminal history includes an arrest for first-degree rape: forcible compulsion.
-Palvinder Singh, an illegal alien from India, whose criminal history includes a conviction for rape in Germany.
– Chhun Kim Pril, an illegal alien from Cambodia, whose criminal history includes a conviction for drug trafficking.”
And the list went on and on.
It seems the only time Mamdani and his ilk get upset about these illegal alien criminals in their midst is when they get hurt while attacking ICE agents or avoiding arrest.
It isn’t just New York.
“Crime has fallen to record lows under the Trump administration, including murders on pace to drop to the lowest level in 126 years,” former Assistant DHS Secretary Lauren Bis said in July. “It’s no surprise that this drop in crime coincides with deportations of dangerous criminal illegal aliens.”
Having these people in the U.S. puts Americans in harm’s way. Blue sanctuary jurisdictions in places like New York and California irresponsibly allow the problem to fester by not only refusing to deport criminal aliens but by doing everything in their power to impede federal authorities.
And federal authorities should continue to do so no matter the media narratives.
This is the “hidden” benefit of deportation. Countless Americans have escaped injury, predation, rape, and death at the hands of criminals because the Trump administration is doing what the Biden administration refused to do: enforcing U.S. immigration laws.
As infuriating as every case like that of Laken Riley—who was murdered by an illegal alien—is, there are now countless incidents that haven’t happened because of the switch from Biden to Trump.
How many horror stories haven’t happened because the administration decided to not only aggressively seal the border but to track down the criminals, from petty to heinous, who should have never been here in the first place?
Make no mistake, if the Left seizes power, the borders will open once again, criminal illegal aliens will breathe a sigh of relief, Americans will suffer a surge in violent crime, and the media will be quick with the excuses.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
