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Washington, D.C. — How the might have fallen: from being in control of Afghanistan, the United States military has been forced to evacuate its troops and civilians from an airport deep inside Taliban-controlled Kabul within weeks.
Afghanistan fell quickly after its collapse, even though in May both the Afghan National Army (ANA) and U.S. forces controlled the region. In July, President Biden promised Afghanistan would never fall to the Taliban despite significant territorial losses.
Then, as the Taliban took control of major cities on August 10, U.S. officials estimated the government would fall in 30 days or less. Taliban forces unopposed entered Kabul five days later Taliban forces unopposed entered Kabul, bringing down the entire country.
Forward to late August, where U.S. troops, stranded at Kabul’s airport by the Taliban and surrounded by fleeing mobs conducted an ad hoc evacuation.
As a result of operating assumptions not being updated, I see three failures in decision-making. First, the Taliban failed to acknowledge that the US had “won” the war and the U.S. failed to adapt to the situation once it became clear that the bad guys weren’t crying ‘Uncle’. Secondly, the United States failed to build contingency plans to protect its evacuation effort when the Taliban accelerated their offensive. And bringing up the rear (and memories of Benghazi) U.S. forces and civilians were not protected after being besieged in Kabul.
Taliban victory in guerrilla war was neither anticipated nor adapted by U.S. leadership. Failure of nation building and loss of the guerrilla war weren’t due to a lack of warnings f rom experts-corroborated as our government also received reports from troops returning from Afghanistan.
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A robust evidence base didn’t support the Afghan government’s viability or nation-building’s success; rather, it was only the belief of a political and institutional elite that it was “true.” Maintaining the illusion that the U.S. was there at the political level to modernize and integrate Afghanistan was required from an institutional perspective because the United States had already incurred enormous losses (thousands of lives) and enormous costs (trillions of dollars) through the venture. Protecting careers was probably also a […]
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