Click here to view original web page at www.naturalnews.com
( Natural News ) Unemployment in the U.S. will rise to 5.6 percent by the end of 2023, warned Bank of America (BofA). Its prediction followed Federal Reserve officials who expressed belief that the central bank’s interest rate target will approach five percent next year.
A research note from BofA’s U.S. economics team headed by chief economist Michael Gapen stated that higher interest rates will make “a harder landing” more possible. The bank had been predicting a five percent unemployment rate for 2023, so the revised prediction amounted to a 12 percent increase.
Unemployment was at 3.7 percent in August 2022, an increase of 0.2 points from July of the same year. Prior to that month, however, the unemployment rate had consistently been at 3.6 percent for four straight months beginning March until June. (Related: Initial unemployment claims remain high as recession fears affect labor market .)
“The Fed’s actions suggest to us that it is committed to reducing inflation and it appears willing to accept some deterioration in labor market conditions,” the BofA economists stated.
The bank predicts the GDP to drop to one percent in the four quarters of 2023. The bank also believes the Fed will elevate its target range for the Federal Funds rate from 4.75 to 5.0 percent.
A quick increase in unemployment like the nearly two hundred basis point hike prediction by BofA is usually considered a marker of a recession. If the bank’s prediction is correct, the U.S. will be in a Sahm rule recession sometime in 2023.
Named after economist Claudia Sahm, the Sahm rule states that a recession has started when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate increases by 0.50 percentage points or more compared to its low during the preceding 12 months. Battle against inflation will be painful, Fed warns
The […]
They’re Trying to Shut Us Down
Over the last several months, I’ve lost count of how many times the powers-that-be have tried to shut us down. They’ve sent hackers at us, forcing us to take extreme measures on web security. They sent attorneys after us, but thankfully we’re not easily intimidated by baseless accusations or threats. They’ve even gone so far as to make physical threats. Those can actually be a bit worrisome but Remington has me covered.
For us to continue to deliver the truth that Americans need to read and hear, we ask you, our amazing audience, for financial assistance. We have a Giving Fuel page to help us pay the bills. It’s brand new so don’t be discouraged by the lack of donations there. It’s a funny reality that the fewer the donations that have been made, the less likely people are willing to donate to it. One would think this is counterintuitive, but sometimes people are skeptical because they think that perhaps there’s a reason others haven’t been donating. In our situation, we’re just getting started so please don’t be shy if you have the means to help.
Thank you and God bless!
JD Rucker