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As the Federal Reserve continues to hike rates into a rapidly slowing economy, macroeconomic analyst Luke Gromen warns of a growing risk of a default-culminating “death spiral” in U.S. government debt that will force the central bank to hit pause on monetary tightening sooner than markets expect, and then restart the money printers full blast to resume monetizing debt.
Soaring inflation has driven the U.S. central bank to embark on a path of quantitative tightening, with market expectations—based chiefly on eurodollar futures contracts—predicting that the Fed will continue hiking for another six months or so before hitting pause.
The Atlanta Fed’s market expectations tracker , which estimates the three-month average fed funds rate using a methodology that centers on eurodollar futures, predicts the Fed will hike no higher than to around 350 basis points, or 3.50 percent.
The final hike is expected to take place at the Fed’s December meeting, with the tracker then estimating a slight and steady drop in the fed funds rate, to around 284 basis points by mid-June 2023.
But this consensus view—namely that the Fed will keep hiking for another six months before pivoting—will face a hard reality check as economic indicators deteriorate and GDP slows, putting pressure on debt-servicing costs and forcing the Fed to bring forward its timeline for a pivot, Gromen argues. Far Faster Fed Pivot?
Gromen, founder of macro and investment research firm Forest For The Trees, told the Real Vision Finance program in a recent interview that he thinks the last Fed rate hike is barely a month away.
“My base case [scenario] is that what we’re likely to see, in my view, in the U.S. economic data over the next month or two is likely to pull forward the day … where the Fed is forced to pause hiking,” he said, predicting that […]
Will America-First News Outlets Make it to 2023?
Things are looking grim for conservative and populist news sites.
There’s something happening behind the scenes at several popular conservative news outlets. 2021 was bad, but 2022 is proving to be disastrous for news sites that aren’t “playing ball” with the corporate media narrative. It’s being said that advertisers are cracking down, forcing some of the biggest ad networks like Google and Yahoo to pull their inventory from conservative outlets. This has had two major effects. First, it has cooled most conservative outlets from discussing “taboo” topics like Pandemic Panic Theater, voter fraud, or The Great Reset. Second, it has isolated those ad networks that aren’t playing ball.
Certain topics are anathema for most ad networks. Speaking out against vaccines or vaccine mandates is a certain path to being demonetized. Highlighting voter fraud in the 2020 and future elections is another instant advertising death penalty. Throw in truthful stories about climate change hysteria, Critical Race Theory, and the border crisis and it’s easy to understand how difficult it is for America-First news outlets to spread the facts, share conservative opinions, and still pay the bills.
Without naming names, I have been told of several news outlets who have been forced to either consolidate with larger organizations or who have backed down on covering certain topics out of fear of being “canceled” by the ad networks. I get it. This is a business for many of us and it’s not very profitable. Those of us who do this for a living are often barely squeaking by, so loss of additional revenue can often mean being forced to make cuts. That means not being able to cover the topics properly. Its a Catch-22: Tell the truth and lose the money necessary to keep telling the truth, or avoid the truth and make enough money to survive. Those who have chosen survival simply aren’t able to spread the truth properly.
We will never avoid the truth. The Lord will provide if it is His will. Our job is simply to share the facts, spread the Gospel, and educate as many Americans as possible while exposing the forces of evil.
To those who have the means, we ask that you please donate. We have options available now, but there is no telling when those options will cancel us. We have our GivingFuel page. There have been many who have been canceled by PayPal, but for now it’s still an option. Your generosity is what keeps these sites running and allows us to get the truth to the masses. We’ve had great success in growing but we know we can do more with your assistance.
Thank you, and God Bless!
JD Rucker