(Zero Hedge)—French soldiers will take over guard duty so that police and gendarmes can be moved onto the streets for Saturday’s expected protests, Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez told parliament on Tuesday.
Nuñez said troops from Operation Sentinelle, the anti-terror deployment, would replace internal security forces mainly on static guarding duties. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said the same day that Saturday’s mobilization of forces “will be massive,” Remix News reported, ahead of a major protest planned for October 24.
Sentinelle was launched in January 2015 and keeps about 10,000 soldiers across France to guard against terrorist attacks, usually at places of worship, schools, tourist sites, railway stations and airports. It also covered the Paris 2024 Olympics and Paralympics. Nuñez described a post-holding role for the troops in this case, not a crowd-control one.
The government now admits it failed to contain last Saturday’s riots. Lecornu acknowledged lapses in intelligence gathering, said police had been positioned too rigidly and said authorities chose not to cancel planned police leave, Reuters reported. He blamed far-left groups and framed the crisis as a choice “between violence and the Republic”; those groups say the government underestimated anger over living costs and declining public services. Nuñez told parliament: “I deeply regret what happened. I accept my share of responsibility.” He offered his resignation, and Macron rejected it.
About 60,000 police and gendarmes were on duty nationwide on Saturday, October 17, when roughly 500,000 people marched against the cost of living (authorities told Remix 550,000; organizers claimed over 800,000). Nuñez called that too few for the large crowds of rioters and looters on the edges of the marches. He said police had “lost control” in some cities and admitted a “lack of anticipation.” Riots and looting hit Paris, Marseille, Lyon and other cities, and in Limoges an arson attack brought down the roof and tower of the historic town hall.
The toll so far is large. Euronews counts more than 2,500 arrests and Remix more than 2,400 detained, while Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin put the number in custody at over 2,330, 70% of them adults. Almost 1,000 members of the security forces were injured. Alain Di Crescenzo, president of the chamber of commerce, said more than 2,000 shops were hit and put the damage at “hundreds of millions of euros.” On Monday Lecornu asked regional authorities for “localised and partial curfews” and said nearly 200 Paris police investigators would comb footage to identify looters. Parliament is also setting up a commission of inquiry into the causes of the unrest. As we reported, 8 p.m. curfews followed in northern cities.
Nuñez is also considering banning demonstrations that have not been declared and could lead to public disorder. Declared marches could be caught too, he said, but only if organizers or their stewards give authorities reason to think things will get out of hand. For marches judged low-risk, routes should steer clear of public buildings and high streets, and intelligence services are to step up estimates of turnout, especially of the most radical participants. He said security forces need more “responsiveness and mobility” against “scattered” and “extremely mobile” groups, and told parliament: “We will be there.”
The playbook has a precedent. In March 2019, for the 19th Saturday of the yellow vest protests, Sentinelle troops guarded sensitive sites so police could focus on order, and demonstrations were banned on the Champs-Élysées and in central districts of Bordeaux, Toulouse, Marseille, Nice and Rouen. Police made 31 arrests and issued 15 fines for entering banned areas, out of 2,322 street checks in Paris, NBC News reported. Macron brushed off opposition criticism of the army’s involvement: “Those trying to scare people, or to scare themselves, are wrong.”
Ministers of that period drew a line at confrontation. Armed forces minister Florence Parly said it was “hors de question” to put soldiers face to face with protesters, and said Sentinelle would relieve police and gendarmes of counter-terrorism tasks. Nuñez’s description of static duties fits that model, though the government has not said where in the country the troops will be posted.
The unrest is also reaching the bond market. We reported this week that French 10-year yields hit 24-year highs near 5%, with the spread over German Bunds close to 160 basis points and Moody’s due to review France’s Aa3 rating, which carries a negative outlook. Earlier, we described the country as entering a “point of no return” as the riots spread.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
