- Former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the crowded Republican primary field as he makes his third bid for the White House.
- Polling analysts emphasized how “unprecedented” and “unique” this cycle is, considering a former president is heavily in the lead with two federal indictments under his belt, they told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
- “This GOP primary is truly unprecedented, because Trump is not technically an incumbent, but Republican voters seem to be treating him as at least a quasi-incumbent,” Kyle Kondik, nonpartisan polling analyst and managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, told the DCNF.
Former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the early primary season in an unprecedented third bid for the White House, polling experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
This Republican primary cycle is like none other as the frontrunner is a former president, has a massive lead in the polls, his former vice president is running against him and Trump has two federal indictments under his belt. Polling analysts stressed to the DCNF the stark difference between this GOP primary season and previous cycles, arguing that it’s difficult to draw comparisons in modern history.
“This GOP primary is truly unprecedented, because Trump is not technically an incumbent, but Republican voters seem to be treating him as at least a quasi-incumbent,” Kyle Kondik, a nonpartisan polling analyst and managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, told the DCNF. “This primary is similar to 2016 in the sense that the field is large, meaning that it’ll be hard for a non-Trump to consolidate the non-Trump supporters.”
Kondik also noted that the former president’s legal troubles pose another “unique” angle to the primary, which the analyst argued makes it difficult to draw similarities between this election and previous cycles. Trump’s two indictments could cause “fatigue” among the GOP, leading to a drop in the polls, but Kondik doesn’t see signs of his support currently lagging.
In late March, the former president was indicted by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg for allegedly falsifying business records when paying back former attorney Michael Cohen for giving porn star actress Stormy Daniels $130,000 in hush money to keep quiet about an alleged affair with Trump. In early June, Trump was indicted by a federal judge in Miami, Florida, for alleged violation of the Espionage Act, along with several other charges like obstruction and making false statements, related to Special Counsel Jack Smith’s probe into the alleged mishandling of classified documents.
Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, also stressed how unprecedented this Republican primary is and argued Trump’s reshaping of the party, paired with his indictment by the Manhattan district attorney, have helped the former president dominate the polls.
“This really is a unique cycle, at least since we’ve used primaries and caucuses as the primary vehicle to nominate our presidential candidates. In that time, we haven’t had an incumbent president lose a reelection and run again, much less lead in the polls,” McHenry told the DCNF. “President Trump’s lead right now is in part a testament to the extent to which he reshaped the party from a conservative party to a populist party.”
McHenry acknowledged how Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was polling well against the former president prior to the first indictment, and noted Trump’s spike in support ever since.
“With the New York charges in particular being seen as politically motivated and questionable legally — with a very different context than holding top secret documents in an unsecure location — the Republicans who might have been ready to move on to a fresh face have at least for now rallied back to the former president,” McHenry said.
Trump maintains a strong lead in key early primary state polls among a crowded field of Republican presidential contenders, according to FiveThirtyEight. The former president is currently ahead in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina by 23 points, 28 points, 30 points and 23 points, respectively.
The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average for the 2024 national Republican primary, based on polls conducted between June 10 and June 26, indicate Trump is leading the GOP field by over 30 points, with only one other candidate, DeSantis, consistently polling in the double digits at 20.9%. Former Vice President Mike Pence has a RCP average of 6.1% support.
The current polling data illustrates the stark differences between this cycle and the two previous crowded GOP primary fields, as there wasn’t as clear of a frontrunner in the summers preceding the election years.
In 2015, just ahead of the Republican primary debates’ kickoff, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was in the lead with only 19% support, according to a late June CNN/ORC International poll, compared to Trump’s current RCP average of 53%. Bush was leading a similarly crowded field of GOP candidates by 7 points, followed by then-candidate Trump, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 12%, 8%, 7% and 7%, respectively.
In 2011, a Republican primary survey from late June indicated that the top four contenders for the 2012 election held double digit support, with the eventual nominee, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, inching out ahead of the crowded field by 6 points, followed by former New York City Mayor Rudi Giuliani, then-Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin with 13%, 13% and 11%, respectively, according to a McClatchy-Marist poll.
“Is there a comparable election? Nope. And that’s fine,” Nathan Klein, pollster for OnMessage Inc., told the DCNF. “The one thing Americans, and especially the GOP primary electorate, don’t want is to do things the way they have been done.”
2024 GOP Primary Polling Trends among likely voters by Echelon Insights (A/B)
January
Trump — 36% (+2)
DeSantis — 34%Feb.
Trump — 46% (+15)
DeSantis — 31%March
Trump — 49% (+23)
DeSantis — 26%May
Trump — 49% (+30)
DeSantis — 19%JUNE
Trump — 49% (+33)
DeSantis — 16% pic.twitter.com/Ve9hn4RWgs— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 4, 2023
John McLaughlin, CEO and partner of McLaughlin & Associates, a polling firm that works closely with the former president’s campaign, told the DCNF that Trump’s massive lead in the polls is attributable to President Joe Biden’s administration indicting the former president and argued it’s also “historic” that Trump is leading Biden in general election matchups.
The RCP average for a 2024 head-to-head rematch between Trump and Biden, based on polls conducted between June 8 and June 27, indicates the former president is leading by 0.6 points.
“Compared to Trump’s success — on the economy, on national security, on the border and other issues — Biden’s failures are glaring, and there’s really a lot of buyer’s remorse. President Trump is leading in the national popular vote, and Republicans have not seen that since 2004,” McLaughlin said. “This is historic in multiple ways, but I think the epitome of it is that Joe Biden has indicted his political opponent, his leading political opponent — that’s never happened in American history. That’s what happens in communist countries.”
“President Trump continues to dominate in poll after poll — both nationally and statewide,” Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung told the DCNF. “He is the only person who is beating Joe Biden by significant margins because voters know President Trump’s return to the White House means a strong economy, a secure border, and a safer America.”
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Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.