The calendar of the late medieval peasant included around 115 Holy Days. For starters there were 52 Sundays, 12 Days of Christmas, 7 of Easter, 7 of Whitsun, then a string of days for major saints, plus one for the saint whose name you bore and another for the patron saint of your parish church.
Some, like the further 40 days of Lent, were for fasting and abstinence, others for feasting. Hopefully the local monastery, or lord, would lay on a spread. If you consider this last point rose-tinted, note that Martin Luther condemned Holy Days precisely because “they are abused by drinking, gambling, loafing, and all manner of sin,[meaning] we anger God more on Holy Days than we do on other days.”
Nowadays, the secular calendar of public health fills an even larger fraction of the year and includes no fun or feasts, obviating Luther’s objection. There are four months, two coinciding, of forswearing toxins and signalling virtue: Stoptober, Movember, Dry January and Veganuary. On a higher plane, the WHO has 25 days or weeks devoted to solidarity against threats such as Lead Poisoning, AIDS, TB, Drowning, and ‘Neglected Tropical Diseases.’ The UN adds more: for example World Toilet Day, (19 Nov).
The WHO’s World Antibiotic Awareness Week (WAAW) begins a day earlier on the 18th and continues till Thursday the 24th. WAAW used to be a single day (18 Nov), but now it’s a week, which underscores the importance the WHO attaches.
It’s of some professional interest because I used to head the UK’s national reference lab for antibiotic resistance and had to engage with it. And, yes, there is a genuine problem with resistance, as well as some exaggerated hyperbole. Succinctly, antibiotics kill susceptible bacteria, leaving resistant ones to survive and infect the next patient. Over time this Darwinian selection means that drugs can become useless. We successively ‘lost’ sulfonamides, penicillin, tetracycline and ciprofloxacin against gonorrhoea, for example. Otherwise-harmless gut and environmental bacteria that opportunistically infect ICU patients are especially adept at acquiring resistance, even to the newest drugs.
So, I’m in favour of prudent, better-targeted, antibiotic use, to slow this evolution.
Which is why yesterday’s news – in the London Daily Mail , then confirmed from the FDA website – brought a groan. WAAW begins with a shortage of amoxicillin – one of the world’s most widely-used antibiotics. The driver is a big increase in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) among US children and, more surprisingly, adults. RSV rates among seniors are 10-fold higher than normal for the season. This follows similar RSV surges in Japan and New Zealand in 2021. On top of which there’s an explosion of influenza in the US, with rates higher than for the corresponding week of every year in the past decade.
These RSV and flu patients roll into emergency rooms and are given amoxicillin ‘just in case’ their viral infection leads to a bacterial one. Whether they should be given an antibiotic is doubtful. Most wouldn’t develop bacterial superinfection. The amoxicillin will do nothing to cure the viral infection and may select resistance among their gut bacteria, which might seed a subsequent harder-to-treat urinary infection.
Nonetheless, the prescribing is understandable. The clinician has a queue of patients. Each is happier with ‘treatment.’ Around two or three per hundred among the elderly would develop bacterial pneumonia. Maybe one per hundred would land in hospital, costing far more than 100 courses of amoxicillin. And he or she might sue the physician who denied the antibiotic.
So, rather than condemning questionable amoxicillin prescribing, let’s put the blame where it is due. On two and a half years’ insanity, which precipitated this mess. On the failure of the medico-scientific establishment to see beyond their one obsession of controlling COVID or even achieving Zero-COVID. On ignoring every predictable piece of collateral damage, including impacts on other diseases prioritised with their own ‘Holy Days.’
Above all, we should start by acknowledging that we live in messy equilibria with respiratory viruses, not perfect immunity. We are infected and develop short-duration protection. Once this fades we are prone to be reinfected, perhaps by a viral variant that partially escapes our residual defences. The cycle then repeats. Flu vaccines help a bit but haven’t eradicated influenza.
In infancy each virus is new, so we spend our winters as snotty-nosed brats, with one cold after another. Equilibria establish as we grow to adolescence, though. Afterwards we catch only occasional colds. Many are asymptomatic, as reported for rhinoviruses in university students and influenza in school-aged children. These reboot immunity without us knowing we’re infected. SARS-CoV-2 was a problem because we adults had to begin to build immunity de novo, sometimes at an advanced age. And, as with learning a language, it’s easier at 5 than 75.
Lockdowns, masks and social distancing failed to stop circulation of SARS-CoV-2. What they did achieve was to disrupt our equilibria with other respiratory viruses. Flu and RSV all but ‘disappeared’ in 2020 and early 2021, leaving our immunity to decay. Now they are roaring back, finding victims aplenty, even in age cohorts who normally evade symptomatic RSV. This, in turn, drives antibiotic use, warranted or not, and deepens the amoxicillin shortage.
Just in time to mock WAAW.
WAAW isn’t the only WHO Holy Day (or Week, rather) thus defiled. Take TB Day (24 March). Distribution of antibiotics for tuberculosis was hit by lockdowns in South and Southeast Asia, raising the risk of treatment failures and resistance. Ditto for HIV/AIDS (1 Dec). Next, there’s Immunisation Week (24-30 April). Whatever benefits COVID vaccines have for the old and infirm, efforts to force them – with mandates and vaccine passports – onto the young and healthy, who then caught COVID anyway, has fed understandable distrust. This undermines uptake of other vaccines that are more unequivocally beneficial. Last, there’s World Mental Health Day (10 Oct). Lockdowns and masks weren’t good for anyone’s mental health, to say the least.
Of all organisations, the WHO, with its calendar of Holy Days as an aide memoire, should have recognised how so many aspects of health and well-being interlock, and how fighting an existential war with one pathogen would impact other priorities. It had a sane and proportionate respiratory pandemic plan in 2019.
This made no mention of general lockdowns, was sceptical of masks except for the symptomatic, and abjured border closures, contact tracing or quarantine of contacts. All this good sense, designed for influenza and applicable to other respiratory virus, was abandoned overnight in March 2020.
Now the consequences are coming back everywhere, even hitting priority targets identified by the WHO’s own High and Holy Days. Before it has any Pandemic Treaty, the WHO must be forced to reflect on this and to remember the first law of medicine: ‘Do no harm.’
About the Author
David Livermore is retired Professor of Microbiology, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. Article cross-posted from Brownstone Institute.
Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.
