- Israel did not anticipate Hamas’ attack beginning Saturday despite having a top-tier intelligence service, provoking questions as to why.
- An unfounded belief that Hamas was not interested in military conflict may have blinded Israel to signs of the planned onslaught, according to experts and media reports.
- A combination of collection gaps, analytical failures of imagination and disciplined operational security by Hamas could all have led to this intelligence failure,” Emily Harding, a former intelligence official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
(Daily Caller)—Days after Hamas terrorists conducted its most brutal and complex attack ever on Israel, more questions than answers remain regarding how Israel failed to see the operation coming.
Hamas’ terrorists six-pronged Saturday assault on Israel — resulting in more than 1,000 Israeli deaths and a declaration of war — caught Israel by surprise despite the nation’s reputation as a top-tier intelligence power and its near laser focus on Gaza, The Associated Press reported. Nearly four days after the attack and as Israel prepares to carry out a massive war on Gaza, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation they remain baffled at how neither the U.S. nor Israel appear to have anticipated the operation.
While Hamas fighters trained, Israel let itself be deceived by Hamas leaders while turning greater attention to violence on the West Bank, political turmoil and fears of Hezbollah, experts said.
“The Israeli services are among the best in the world, so missing something of this magnitude is truly shocking,” Emily Harding, a former intelligence official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the DCNF. “A combination of collection gaps, analytical failures of imagination and disciplined operational security by Hamas could all have led to this intelligence failure,” she said.
“Strategic surprise is like a plane crash — it’s not any one thing that goes wrong, it’s lots of things that add up to a disaster,” Harding said.
None of Israel’s intelligence services — the Mossad, Shin Bet or Aman (military intelligence) — received any specific warning of the complex attack, The New York Times reported, citing an Israeli defense official and U.S. officials. This is despite reports, denied by official sources, that Egyptian intelligence warned Israel of an imminent attack.
During the attack, Hamas fighters infiltrated Israel in at least six different locations along a 15-kilometer arc with engineers to deconstruct obstacles, showing unprecedented tactical and strategic prowess that suggests the involvement of foreign powers, Can Kasapugolu, an analyst at the Hudson Institute, said in a statement shared with the DCNF. Hamas first took out Israeli surveillance outposts with drones before conducting a second wave of air assaults with rockets and paragliders, Times of Israel reported.
The plan likely took months to come together, with preparations beginning as early as mid-2022, The Washington Post reported, citing a Western intelligence analyst.
Hamas’ ability to prepare for the attack without raising alarms raises serious questions regarding Israel’s knowledge of terrorist groups and how Iran uses them to threaten Israel, experts said.
“HAMAS, PIJ, and the other groups involved exercised exceptional operational security discipline and engaged in purposeful disinformation and deception to indicate that no sort of attack was likely,” retired Col. Rich Outzen, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told the DCNF.
“Israel’s ability to detect indications and warnings is unmatched,” Richard Goldberg, a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the DCNF. That there is nothing to suggest either the U.S. or Israel anticipated a complex attack suggested that Hamas “and likely its terror sponsor in Iran have developed methods of evading intelligence collection,” he said.
Hamas fighters trained for the operation sometimes in plain sight while the political wing led Israel to believe it would accept economic carrots like work permits in exchange for cessation of violence, Reuters reported, citing a source close to Hamas.
As part of the preparations, Hamas built a mock Israeli settlement and filmed military drills storming the settlement, the source told Reuters.
Palestinian Islamic Jihad, another Islamist group operating in the Palestinian territories, learned of the operation just hours before it was scheduled to begin when Hamas invited the group to participate, Al Jazeera reporter Ali Hashem reported, citing an Islamic Jihad source. The same outlet reported even most of Hamas did not know, citing a Hamas source. Details of the operation were known only to a small group within the Qassem Brigades, which the military wing of the Hamas organization, the source reportedly said.
Reuters offered a similar account, saying that Hamas sought to minimize leaks by including only a handful of leaders in the planning process. Most Hamas fighters did not know the purpose of the exercises.
Israel has not had an overt physical presence in Gaza since 2005 but appeared to maintain significant covert electronic sensors and human sources in the region even after Hamas took control in 2007, according to the AP. Precision strikes on buildings ostensibly concealing Hamas leaders and tunnels used to ferry fighters and supplies through the region appeared to demonstrate Israel’s persistent eyes on the small territory.
Expert consensus has not yet emerged on what may have contributed to the failure, and who to blame.
Israel may have assumed that its defenses, including the Iron Dome air defense system, border fences and sensors, would deny Hamas any route by which to launch major attacks, according to Haaretz and The Economist writer Anshel Pfeffer. It may have relied too heavily on the belief that economic relief would suppress hostilities to a manageable level. Finally, it may have believed Hamas would not risk triggering a war with Israel.
Hamas had not attacked Israel in two years, leading Israel to believe the organization’s Gaza-based leader Yahya Al-Sinwar had no time to coordinate assaults amid struggles to manage chaos within Gaza, Reuters reported.
“We believed that the fact that they were coming in to work and bringing money into Gaza would create a certain level of calm. We were wrong,” an Israel Defense Forces spokesperson told Reuters.
“The problem is that intelligence was available but conflicted with prevailing opinions about intent,” Outzen told the DCNF. “The deception, and the view that longstanding operational concepts of containment, limited retaliation, and positive inducements were working led to missing the pattern that turned out to be real.”
Internal dysfunction also played a role, according to Kim Ghattas, a fellow at the Columbia Institute of Global Politics, said. Political disunity distracted the Israeli government from external developments.
Coffee the Christian way: Promised Grounds
“There’s deep disunity in [the] system,” she wrote. The army and intelligence agencies may have communicated to parliament, but politicians in their “hubris” could have ignored the warnings, she suggested.
Harding disagreed. “Intelligence professionals are mission-focused, and a mission as important as protecting Israel against terrorist attacks is above political wrangling,” she told the DCNF.
Levels of trust between Netanyahu and the military have declined amid institutional disagreement with the prime minister’s proposed judicial reforms, Outzen said.
Others said that Israel has devoted more attention to the threat from Hezbollah to the country’s north. Larger and more advanced than Hamas but no less hostile to Israel, Hezbollah was seen to present a greater danger. Israel also re-positioned military resources to the West Bank following a spate of minor clashes with militants there, where Jewish settlers who comprise part of Netanyahu’s base have called for a security crackdown, according to the AP.
“Right now, with terrorists on the loose, rockets flying, hostages held and a massive counteroffensive being planned, there’s little time for finger pointing. But there will come a time for that once the dust settles,” Goldberg told the DCNF.
Hamas has released video purportedly showing its forces training to breach the Gaza border fence. Note the training is taking place in the open, in broad daylight. How did IAF ISR miss this? pic.twitter.com/qTg8pPNocX
— Bill Roggio (@billroggio) October 10, 2023
Questions have also emerged regarding whether Israel misinterpreted or shrugged off more obvious warnings of an attack.
In August, a senior Hamas leader told the pro-Hezbollah network the organization is “preparing for an all-out war” and is “closely discussing the prospects of this war with all relevant parties.” But, he said the strongest resistance would come from the West Bank.
Swirling reports of sometimes contradictory information further complicate the picture.
Egypt’s top official for intelligence allegedly warned Netanyahu that Hamas was planning “something big,” but Israel ignored repeated warnings from Cairo, an anonymous Egyptian intelligence official said, according to Times of Israel. However, Netanyahu denied the reports.
“No early message came from Egypt and the prime minister did not speak or meet with the intelligence chief since the establishment of the government — not indirectly or directly,” Netanyahu’s office said, according to TOI.
Unnamed Egyptian sources also denied the story, Haaretz reported.
“Judging adversary intent is always the hardest,” Harding said.
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Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.
