(The Economic Collapse Blog)—We were warned that more banks would soon be getting into deep trouble. In fact, just yesterday I told my readers to circle March 11th because that is when a very important Federal Reserve program that has been propping up our banks will be allowed to expire. Unfortunately, we didn’t even have to wait for March 11th for the action to begin. On Wednesday morning, shares of New York Community Bank were absolutely crashing. Zero Hedge reported on the drama as it was unfolding…
Once the darling of the small banking crisis comeback, New York Community Bancorp has crashed 45% to fresh 30 year lows after The Wall Street Journal reports the bank is seeking to raise equity capital in a bid to shore up confidence in the troubled regional lender.
According to people familiar with the matter, NYCB has dispatched bankers to gauge investors’ interest in buying stock in the company.
There’s no guarantee there will be a deal, or that one would succeed in addressing the bank’s challenges, which as of Wednesday morning had led to a roughly 80% decline in its stock price since January.
As January began, shares of New York Community Bank were selling for more than 10 dollars.
At one point on Wednesday, they were trading for less than 2 dollars.
So why is New York Community Bank in so much trouble?
Well, we are being told it is because “the quality of its commercial real estate loans soured”…
The bank has faced a crisis in recent months after the quality of its commercial real estate loans soured and ratings agencies downgraded its credit status to junk.
Companies are giving up on offices and downtown retail spaces – after Covid normalized working from home and catalyzed the decline of downtown shopping.
That left the owners of commercial buildings unable to pay lenders like NYCB. Some 16 percent of its loans are for commercial real estate acquisition, development and construction.
In other words, New York Community Bank is sitting on a mountain of bad commercial real estate loans.
For a long time, I have been telling my readers that we are going to experience the greatest commercial real estate crisis in U.S. history.
Now, we have reached a stage where nobody can deny what is happening. In fact, billionaire real estate investor Barry Sternlicht says that there will be a trillion dollars in losses on U.S. office properties…
There are growing signs that commercial real estate is in serious trouble.
Barry Sternlicht, a billionaire real estate investor and Starwood Capital’s CEO, recently predicted $1 trillion of losses on office properties alone.
More than $900 billion, or 20%-plus of the total debt owed on US commercial and multi-family real estate, will mature this year, Bloomberg reported this week. Borrowers may have no choice but to refinance at much higher interest rates, or sell their properties at a big discount.
We have never seen anything like this before.
And it is going to have enormous implications for the financial markets.
According to Bloomberg, in recent weeks bond investors “have punished banks with heavy exposure to commercial real estate”…
Bond investors have punished banks with heavy exposure to commercial real estate, potentially adding even more pressure to the lenders’ profits as Wall Street scrambles to assess how widely pain in property debt will spread through the financial system.
Sadly, what we have witnessed so far is just the beginning.
Hundreds of banks all over the nation are drowning in bad commercial real estate loans, and the carnage is going to be immense.
But for the moment, there is some good news.
Somehow, New York Community Bank has been able to locate rubes that are willing to inject a billion dollars into the troubled financial institution…
Shares in New York Community Bank soared this afternoon after the struggling lender announced a $1 billion capital raise and new leadership.
NYCB agreed to a deal with several investment firms in exchange for equity in the regional bank, it announced on Wednesday afternoon.
Those firms include Hudson Bay Capital, Reverence Capital Partners and Liberty Strategic Capital, headed by former US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin.
Will this be enough to save New York Community Bank?
From a short-term perspective, I think that it will help.
But in the long run I do not think that New York Community Bank will survive.
Of course the same thing could be said about hundreds of other U.S. banks. In fact, as I discussed yesterday, Kevin O’Leary of “Shark Tank” fame is convinced that thousands of U.S. banks will fail during the years ahead.
Meanwhile, trouble signs continue to erupt for the economy as a whole.
According to a survey that was recently conducted by ResumeBuilder, 38 percent of U.S. business leaders expect their companies to conduct layoffs in 2024…
2024 is already looking grim. And it’s only February.
Thirty-eight percent of business leaders surveyed by ResumeBuilder think layoffs are likely at their companies this year, and around half say their companies will implement a hiring freeze. ResumeBuilder talked to around 900 leaders at organizations with more than 10 employees. Half of those surveyed cited concerns about a recession as a reason.
Another major factor: artificial intelligence. Around four in 10 respondents said they’ll conduct layoffs as they replace workers with AI, with Dropbox, Google, and IBM have already announced job cuts for that very reason.
By pumping trillions upon trillions of dollars into the system, those running things were able to keep the economy propped up for a while.
Coffee the Christian way: Promised Grounds
But in the process they created a tremendous amount of inflation, and now the inevitable implosion is coming anyway.
The U.S. economy is in far more trouble than most people realize.
We are going to be entering a period of great economic turmoil just as the most chaotic election season in U.S. history rattles the very foundations of our society.
So I hope that you have been enjoying the “lull” that we have been experiencing during the early portion of this year, because things will certainly get very “interesting” in the months ahead.
Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.
