One of the more difficult aspects of working in economic analysis is the problem of rampant disinformation that you have to dig through in order to get to the truth of any particular issue. In this regard, economics is very similar to politics. The propaganda is endless and debunking it sometimes feels like moving a mountain with a teaspoon.
Establishment media sources lie incessantly about our financial conditions, and when they are finally cornered and forced to admit how bad things are, they then lie about the causes. That said, I find that these lies are usually designed to do one of two things: Over-complicate the problem so that people give up thinking about it, or, distract from the problem so that people blame a scapegoat.
As for inflation, here is the bottom line:
Central Banks And The Fiat Flood
Rising prices are caused by two main drivers. The first is money creation, or too many dollars chasing too few goods. Central banks around the world have been FLOODING the system with fiat currency ever since the debt crisis of 2008 and the Federal Reserve within the US is the worst violator by far. We are talking about tens of trillions (or more) in money creation, all supposedly as a means to stall or prevent a deflationary crash.
By the time the pandemic lockdowns were initiated and the Fed dropped $8 trillion+ onto the economy through stimulus measures like covid checks and PPP loans, the total US money supply was already at destructive levels. The covid stimulus was simply the straw that broke the camel’s back. So, if you want to know who is directly to blame for your daily expenses rising 30% or more in the span of three years, the first set of criminals are the central bankers.
Governments and certain corporate partners are also to blame, but the central banks are the root mechanism for all inflationary movements.
It’s my belief (according to the evidence) that central banks have deliberately triggered a stagflationary crisis with the intent to forcefully replace cash based economies with a new digital and cashless global economy. However, that’s a discussion for another article…
Shortages And Core Resources
The other primary cause of rising prices is shortages or disruptions in key resources including oil and energy. Keep in mind that the war in Ukraine has led to the west being cut off from large portions of the resource rich Russian market. And, the war in Gaza has led to groups in the Middle East like the Houthis denying a majority of cargo ships and oil tankers from traversing the Red Sea.
By themselves, each one of these events seems like a small threat to the global supply chain, but when they pile up together the effects become detrimental. For now, the biggest factor is rising energy prices because this is the key resource that allows all agriculture and manufacturing to function. Every time oil prices rise you’re going to see prices in everything else rise.
This is the exact reason why the Biden Administration continued to dump the US Strategic Oil Reserves on the market for the past couple years. This was their way of manipulating oil prices down in order to mitigate or hide the greater effects of inflation. Now that they’re being pressured to refill those reserves and start buying again (at a much higher price) global oil prices and US prices in particular are spiking again.
Media Disinformation And Crushing Food Costs
Food costs have risen by 30% or more depending on the product since the beginning of 2020, and even though CPI reports several months ago showed a “slowdown” in overall inflation, this does not mean prices are going to go down anytime soon. In fact, they will only keep rising with each passing year.
CPI is a tool for measuring the AVERAGE price increases of over 80,000 products and services across a wide spectrum. Many of these items are not necessities and so they dilute the actual inflation we are seeing in everyday expenditures. If we were to look at an average of only daily necessities like housing, energy, food, etc. then CPI would read far higher.
When the media touts a lower CPI print as a sign that the economy is improving, what they usually don’t mention is that the stat only represents how much higher prices are going to go. A lower CPI does not mean costs on the shelf are going to go down. Inflation is cumulative.
Meaning, that 30%+ increase in food that Americans have been dealing with – That’s not going away, it’s just not climbing as fast as it was. And, as we’ve seen in the past couple months, inflation has the ability to return just as quickly to add even more gasoline to the fire.
Not long ago I was reading through an article from CBS that claimed they could explain why there’s been no respite in food prices lately. In reality the entire piece was disinformation, blaming every possible scapegoat while ignoring the real causes.
Their main explanation is “Greedflation,” or the claim that companies are overcharging on food items. In other words, blame businesses, don’t blame the Federal Reserve and don’t blame the government. They’re “innocent” in all of this.
There is so far no concrete evidence to support the Greedflation theory. Every business has unique expenses, unique overhead, unique industrial costs, unique quality control and unique resource costs. One cookie company’s bottom line will be different from another cookie company’s bottom line. That said, there are universal costs that directly correlate to higher prices regardless of the company, and that includes energy, labor, and core commodities.
For those that track the markets it’s obvious that commodities are climbing. The Industrial Commodity Index continues to rise along with oil and gas prices. Every base resource that companies use to make products is increasing in value and thus it costs them more to manufacture. Agriculture in particular is heavily affected by oil prices as well as prices in fertilizer and farming equipment, not to mention higher costs in labor.
From 2020 to 2023 the total costs paid by farmers to raise crops and care for livestock increased by more than $100 billion, or 28%, to an all-time high of $460 billion in 2023. Funny how that number tracks very close to the 30% increase in overall food prices since 2020. The establishment media wants you to believe that high food prices are going to go away soon, and in order to trick you they need to convince you that the cause is something that can be “controlled” or “regulated”.
There is no indication that agricultural costs are going to stop increasing in the near future, so, that means each year food is going to cost you more than the year before. It might even cost you MUCH more than the year before.
In conclusion, this is why people need to start looking at food as an investment similar to the way they might look at their 401K or any retirement plan. If you want to mitigate costs in the future in terms of food you will need to purchase foods with a long shelf life now. If you think that inflation is a passing phase and that things will go back to the way they were before 2020 then you probably won’t take this concern seriously. But, consider this:
Well before 2020 I was warning regularly about an impending stagflation crisis. The food storage I bought in 2020 now costs at least 30%-50% more to buy in 2024. Meanwhile, some of the top economists in the country were denying such a thing would ever happen. When it did happen, they claimed it was “transitory.” This was also proven false. Now they claim food will drop after companies are forced through regulation to cut prices.
Coffee the Christian way: Promised Grounds
One survival food company, Prepper All-Naturals, has proactively dropped prices to allow Americans to stock up ahead of projected hikes in beef prices. Their 25-year shelf life steaks currently come at a 25% discount with promo code “invest25”. Whether government intervenes or the market continues to react to poor fiscal policies, it is quickly becoming a necessity to invest in food security as soon as possible.
Government enforced price controls have never actually proven effective in stopping inflation. Once you remove all profit incentives many businesses will close up shop. This causes the supply of goods to go down and prices then spike anyway due to shortages.
Do you want to bet your future on establishment economists being right for once, or, do you want to just store some food today in the knowledge that prices are only going exponentially higher?
Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.
