Editor’s Commentary: Before reading the article below by Tyler Durden from Zero Hedge, it’s important to note that in my humble opinion, Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is one of the greatest threats to humanity. I’m not alone in this thinking, but unfortunately the number of people ringing the alarm bells seems to be shrinking at a time when they should be growing.
The reasons for this are many, not the least of which being how easy it is to get enamored by the problem-solving nature of AGI. But with any technological advancement that was intended to make life better, there are always unintended consequences. With AGI, the consequences are far greater than anything we’ve seen.
Let’s look at the example of the internet. Did the internet fulfill its promise of connecting the world? Yes, for the most part. Did it also create a western society that has devolved in nearly every cognitive way as a result to so much access to instant gratification? Absolutely. Has it been turned into safe haven for depravity and crime? Absolutely. As unpopular as it might be to say, I would argue that people were more self-sufficient and society was more moral before the internet changed the world.
AGI’s consequences will be far worse. Keep that in mind as you read this informative piece that leans a little too much in favor of AGI for my liking. I’m publishing it as is, not because I like how it paints AGI but because I trust my audience to be discerning with the information…
When the latest iteration of generative artificial intelligence dropped in late 2022, it was clear that something significant had changed.
The language model ChatGPT reached 100 million active monthly users in just two months, making it the fastest-growing consumer application in history. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs predicted that AI could add 7% to global GDP over a 10-year period, almost $7 trillion, but also replace 300 million jobs in the process.
But even as AI continues to disrupt every aspect of life and work, it’s worth taking a step back.
In this visualization via Visual Capitalist’s Chris Dickert and Sabrina Fortin, the first in a three-part series called The AI Revolution for sponsor VERSES AI, we ask how we got here, where we’re going, and how close are we to achieving a truly thinking machine?
Milestones to Mainstream
The term “artificial Intelligence” was coined by computer scientist John McCarthy in 1955 in a conference proposal. Along with Alan Turing, Marvin Minsky, and many others, he is often referred to as one of the fathers of AI.
Since then, AI has grown in leaps and bounds. AI has mastered chess, beating Russian grandmaster and former World Chess Champion Garry Kasparov in 1997. In 2016, Google’s AlphaGo beat South Korean Go champion Lee Sedol, 4-1. The nine-year gap in achievements is explained by the complexity of Go, which has 10360 possible moves compared to chess’ paltry 10123 combinations.
DALL-E arrived in 2021 and ChatGPT-4 in early 2023, which brings us to today.
But What is Artificial Intelligence?
There’s a big difference between the Roomba that vacuums your condo and HAL from 2001: Space Odyssey. This is why researchers working in the field have come up with the following ways to classify AI:
Despite a false alarm by one Google software engineer in 2022 and a paper by early GPT-4 boosters, no one really believes that recent generative AIs qualify as thinking machines, however you define it. ChatGPT, for all its capabilities, is still just a souped-up version of autocomplete.
Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?
That was the title of Philip K. Dick’s science fiction classic and basis for the movie Blade Runner. In it, Harrison Ford plays a blade runner, a kind of private investigator who used a version of the Turing Test to ferret out life-like androids. But we’re not Harrison Ford and this isn’t science fiction, so how could we tell?
People working in the field have proposed various tests over the years. Cognitive scientist Ben Goertzel thought that if an AI could enroll in college, do the coursework and graduate, then it would pass. Steve Wozniak, co-founder of Apple, suggested that if an AI could enter a strange house, find the kitchen, and then make a cup of coffee, then it would meet the threshold.
A common thread that runs through many of them, however, is the ability to perform at one thing that humans do without effort: generalize, adapt, and problem solve. And this is something that AI has traditionally struggled at, even as it continues to excel on other tasks.
Can Current State-of-Art AI Achieve Thinking Machines?
And it may be that the current approach, which has shown incredible results, is running out of road.
Researchers have created thousands of benchmarks to test the performance of AI models on a range of human tasks, from image classification to natural language inference. According to Stanford University’s AI Index, AI scores on standard benchmarks have begun to plateau, with median improvement in 2022 limited to just 4%.
New comprehensive benchmark suites have begun to appear in response, like BIG-Bench and HELM, but will these share the same fate as their predecessors? Quickly surpassed, but still no closer to an AI like J.A.R.V.I.S. that could pass the Wozniak Coffee Test?
Imagine a Smarter World
VERSES AI, a cognitive computing company specializing in next generation AI and the sponsor of this piece, may have an answer.
The company recently released research that shows how to build an AI that can not only think, but also introspect and explain its “thought processes.” Catch the next part of The AI Revolution series to learn more.
Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.
