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Both the stock market and the economy remain in a strong upward trend.
The Week That Was
The main economic news this past week comes from corporate earnings reports. With 15% of the S&P500 companies reporting, earnings and revenues have been extremely strong.
Year-over-year comparisons are explosive—due to the collapse in earnings last year. More important, Zach’s estimates overall second quarter earnings will be up 16% from the second quarter of 2019.
As for economic news, the Homebuilders’ Index for early July was a strong 80, though down slightly due to supply shortages in building materials.
Weekly unemployment data were mixed.
Initial unemployment claims leveled off at 394,000 in the two weeks ending July 17th. This is the same as June’s unemployment claims.
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Another weekly measure of unemployment is the number of those receiving unemployment payments. That number in the week of July 10th was down 29,000 to 3.2 million, its lowest level since March, 2020 when it was 3.1 million.
Things to Come The Markit business surveys for early July will provide the first indication of overall third-quarter strength in the economy. I continue to expect strong readings (near 60) for both manufacturing and service companies.Monday’s report on new orders for durable goods should continue to show the outlook for the economy remains strong.It is best to ignore Tuesday’s report on consumer confidence, which can be affected more by misleading news on Covid than economic insight.Wednesday’s report from the Fed on its latest policy decisions could be informative The Fed has indicated it will rein in its purchases of securities long before raising interest rates. Look for the Fed to begin hedging on when it will curtail purchases of securities.Thursday’s report on second quarter GDP will likely show rapid growth similar to that of the first quarter.Friday’s report on June’s consumer spending, incomes, and inflation will show strength in all categories at the end of the second quarter. Market Forces For the third consecutive week, stock prices were mixed.The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 led with gains of 1%. The S&P500 was slightly higher; the Dow slightly lower and small caps were mixed.The S&P […]
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