(The Economic Collapse Blog)—The only way that we can continue to have cheap food is if we have cheap energy. We use energy to grow our food, to harvest our food, to produce our food and to package our food. And transporting all of that food from the farm to the factory and then to the stores takes lots of energy. Of course it isn’t just our food supply that depends upon cheap energy. Ultimately, our entire way of life is predicated on a cheap energy paradigm. If you take cheap energy away, everything changes.
That is why this war in the Middle East could represent such a critical economic tipping point.
31 percent of the world’s oil comes from the Middle East. If that supply is restricted or completely cut off for an extended period of time, we will be in for a world of hurt.
But don’t just take my word for it. At this point, even the World Bank is sounding the alarm…
Oil prices could be pushed into ‘uncharted waters’, which could lead to higher food prices worldwide if the violence between Israel and Hamas intensifies, the World Bank has said.
The bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook found that while the effects on oil prices should be limited if the conflict does not widen, the outlook ‘would darken quickly if the conflict were to escalate’.
In a worst case scenario, the World Bank says that the price of oil could go as high as 157 dollars a barrel…
In a ‘large disruption’ scenario – comparable to the Arab oil embargo of 1973 – the global oil supply would shrink by six million to eight million barrels per day and prices could go up by 56 per cent to 75 per cent, or $140 (£115.51) to $157 (£129.53) a barrel, according to the report.
Other experts are projecting that the price of a barrel of oil could eventually go as high as 300 dollars a barrel.
If energy prices start to scream higher as more parties join the war in the Middle East, global food prices will go far higher than they are right now.
Of course they have already reached absurd levels.
This month, a lot of Americans are complaining about ridiculously high candy prices. Over the past year, they have risen by 13 percent in the United States…
Halloween candy inflation is up by double digits for the second year in a row, with prices 13% higher this October compared to the same time last year, according to new data.
Prices of candy and gum in October 2022 had already increased by 14% from the previous year, The Associated Press reported over the weekend, citing data from retail price tracker Datasembly.
“The price of candy has gotten to be outrageous,” small business owner Jessica Weathers, who lives in the 14,400-resident village of Shiloh, Illinois. “It doesn’t make sense to me to spend $100 on candy.”
But that is nothing compared to what is happening to orange juice.
Since March 2020, the price of frozen orange juice concentrate is up 388 percent…
Orange juice futures hit a record high of $4.1195 per pound, up 10% on Monday morning. The frozen orange juice concentrate has soared 388% since March 2020 as weather and disease crush citrus supply in Florida, the biggest producer of oranges in the US.
David Branch of Wells Fargo recently told Yahoo Finance that Florida’s orange crop is expected to come in around 713,000 tons, the smallest since the 1936-37 season.
Ouch.
Do you remember the days when we could all afford to drink orange juice on a regular basis?
Sadly, those days are long gone.
At this stage, even a meal at McDonald’s has become painfully expensive. If you can believe it, a Big Mac combo meal at one location in Connecticut now costs 18 dollars…
However, McDonald’s — which has 13,513 restaurants in the US and over 38,000 abroad — did not disclose how much the franchiser has increased its prices, which generally vary between locations.
One branch in Darien, Conn., charged as much as $18 for a Big Mac combo meal, which includes medium fries and a medium soft drink.
Meanwhile, that same Big Mac combo will run hungry patrons $13.69 at a McDonald’s in Times Square.
Thanks to these skyrocketing food prices, more Americans are going hungry than ever before. This week, we learned that the number of Americans “suffering from hunger and food insecurity” increased by more than 10 million from 2021 to 2022…
The number of Americans suffering from hunger and food insecurity exploded by more than 10 million under President Joe Biden, according to a U.S. Agriculture Department report this week that provided fresh evidence of inflation‘s impact of a basic staple of life.
The report found 44.2 million Americans were living in food-insecure households in 2022, compared to 33.8 million the year before.
“From 2021 to 2022, there were statistically significant increases in food insecurity and very low food security for nearly all subgroups of households described in this report,” USDA reported Wednesday.
So if things were that bad in 2022, how high is that number today?
My guess is that we are well beyond 50 million at this point. And what we have experienced so far is just the beginning.
Unfortunately, most Americans simply cannot comprehend what is happening. Our stores have always been packed to the gills with mountains of cheap food, and so for many people it is really hard to understand that era is ending.
If you have not already done so, I would very much encourage you to stockpile supplies of food while you still can. Because this war in the Middle East is just getting started, and food prices will soon be shooting up to levels that would have once been considered unimaginable.
Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.
