Most people look at the stock market as a sign of the health of the economy. If the stock market is moving higher in value, things must be good. The truth of the matter is the stock market isn’t as important as the debt market, specifically the interbank debt market.
What goes on in the interbank market has a direct effect on what happens in the stock market. A healthy interbank market gives the stock market the footings it needs to sustain a rally. When it breaks, as we saw during 2008 and in March 2020 during COVID, the stock market drops precipitously.
The interbank debt market is the market for money and loans between banks, and between those same banks and the Federal Reserve. It’s called the overnight repo market. The Federal Reserve uses open-market actions like customer repos and reverse repos to add or take liquidity out of the market. Banks make overnight loans to each other. Big institutions that have excess cash on their balance sheets also execute trades in the overnight repo market to grab a little more yield overnight. The market valuation is in the trillions of dollars.
When we have huge drops in the stock market value, it’s usually because there is some sort of ripple tearing through the interbank debt market. In 2008, banks didn’t trust each other’s balance sheets, and the market froze, drying up all liquidity with the corresponding drop in stocks.
If the interbank market is any guide, we look to be for some rough and volatile sledding in the stock market. The increase in the debt ceiling means that the Federal Reserve is going to issue $1.4 trillion in new debt between now and the end of the year. Who is going to buy that debt?
This has always been a conundrum for the market. But today, some of the largest potential foreign buyers of our debt aren’t being as accommodating. U.S. pension funds and other U.S. funds hold the lion’s share of U.S. debt, but it is unclear if they want to buy a lot more at current prices. There is uncertainty, and that creates volatility.
The cash that is currently flowing into the reverse repo market will flow into some of those Treasurys, but the problem is that market is an overnight program. Treasurys are longer denominated instruments. Liquidity is going to flow out of the system at a rate we have not seen for a long, long time, if ever.
When this happened before, we didn’t have the inflationary pressure created by massive government overreach and spending during COVID and post-COVID with the first Biden budget that we have today. Coming into an election cycle, it will be impossible for the government legislative bodies to solve for the lack of liquidity. The Fed will be in a very tough spot to try and solve it since it is the inflation fighter now. Creating more liquidity will spur higher rates of inflation.
Not only that, but the Fed has to be worried about unemployment. Data show that in places like Costco, customers are buying more chicken and pork than they are beef. Is that a change in consumer preferences or is it a sign of recession? States like California have seen tax revenues plummet. Is that a sign of recession, or that startups have laid off people and people have fled the state? All this creates more risk in the stock market, but currently we are witnessing a relief rally after the manufactured debt-ceiling drama. Right now, the VIX, a measure of risk in the stock marke,t is collapsing to year lows.
It is anyone’s guess to where you might see the crack forming. Some people think we will see it in the listed options market. If there is a larger than normal activity of put buying, we ought to see it in prices. Others speculate that a collapse in the cryptocurrency market will be the first sign, because cryptocurrency is a highly risky and fickle asset class. Another place to watch is the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) contract at the CME Group. If the near-term SOFR contract starts to aggressively get bid up in value and seems disjointed with the rest of the debt market, it’s a sign that banks don’t want to lend to each other and that there is a lot of fear in the market.
The problem for anyone is that you cannot time when something might happen. I am not the only person who has seen this, and I credit RJR Capital for broadcasting it on Twitter. Economists such as David Rosenberg have said there is a tidal wave forming and it looks like it will hit the beach.
Buckle up, then, and don’t listen to the mainstream media when it comes to happy or sad talk about the stock market. They don’t see it coming. But it looks like it is coming.
Article cross-posted from our premium news partners at The Epoch Times.
Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.
