Deposit outflows at U.S. banks accelerated recently, driven by the larger and smaller commercial financial institutions, according to new data from the Federal Reserve.
For the week ending May 10, total U.S. commercial bank deposits declined by $26.4 billion, or 0.15 percent, to roughly $17.123 trillion, the lowest level since July 2021. That represented the third consecutive week of rising deposit outflows as the fallout from the banking turmoil in early March persists.
Large commercial banks (negative $21 billion) and small institutions (negative $2.6 billion) both saw declining deposit volumes on a seasonally adjusted basis. In addition, foreign-related banks reported a $2.1 billion drop in deposits.
Since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the Fed’s H.8 data show that total deposits have plunged about $476 billion.
The same report found that loans and leases decreased by $3.3 billion.
Despite the downward trajectory in deposits, CIBC Capital Markets Inc. economists don’t believe this is a worrying trend, writing that the latest figures paint a portrait of a banking system normalizing following sizable pandemic-era liquidity injections.
“Some of what we’re seeing is more a reversion to more normal conditions after ballooning liquidity during the pandemic,” bank economist Avery Shenfeld wrote in a recent research note. “The common perception is that a draining of deposits causes a drop in loans.
“While that’s a plausible story for any one institution, in the aggregate, there’s also a cause and effect in the other direction, in which a decline in loans outstanding is what actually causes a drop in aggregate deposits.”
Meanwhile, additional central bank data suggest that banks are still tapping into the Fed’s emergency lending facilities.
The institution’s H.4.1 figures—the Fed’s balance sheet—confirm that loans from the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) climbed to a fresh high of $87 billion for the week ending May 17.
Soon after the SVB and Signature failures, the Fed launched the BTFP, which allows borrowers to use Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities as collateral for loans up to one year.
But while the raw data suggest that the banking system is still facing considerable stress, some public policymakers and market analysts assert that the worst is over.
Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic believes the market stresses are subsiding, telling the regional central bank’s Financial Markets Conference on May 16 that “we’ve not seen this contagion take place.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated at the Perspectives on Monetary Policy panel at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference on May 19 that the financial stability tools the central bank employed at the onset of the banking turmoil helped “calm conditions.”
Western Alliance Bancorporation recently supported these arguments after a May 15 Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing confirmed that deposits rose by more than $2 billion in the three months to May 12.
Shares of the regional bank tumbled 2.44 percent during the May 19 regular trading session, but the stock recorded a weekly gain of about 25 percent.
U.S. regional bank stocks slumped to finish the trading week after two sources close to the situation told CNN that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned bank CEOs at a recent meeting that more mergers might be necessary.
Yellen met with more than two dozen bank CEOs and executives at a meeting convened by the Bank Policy Institute (BPI) on May 18. Despite a statement reaffirming the strength of the banking system, the Treasury Department didn’t mention these remarks.
The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index fell a little more than 2 percent, while PacWest Bancorp declined almost 2 percent.
If Yellen’s remarks are accurate, new mergers will continue the trend of declining competition in the U.S. banking system. At the end of 2022, there were 4,135 commercial banks, down from the peak of 14,469 in 1983, representing a 71 percent decline over four decades, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC).
The Treasury’s cash balance in its bank account at the Federal Reserve is also heading lower as the department tries to prevent a default on the federal government’s debt. The latest update to the Treasury General Account (TGA) Opening Balance for May 18 stood at $68.332 billion, down from $94.629 billion and $316.381 billion at the start of the month.
Article from our premium news partners at The Epoch Times.
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Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.
