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The U.S. federal government has produced higher than expected jobs numbers by double-counting figures this year, a top economist has stated.
Throughout this year, the monthly jobs reports have been repeatedly topping market estimates.
The July and August non-farm payrolls (NFP) reports showed 528,000 and 315,000 new jobs, respectively.
The figures are far higher than what many economists and analysts had initially projected.
White House officials have taken victory laps on the employment data, noting that these numbers are proof the economy is strong and that President Joe Biden’s policies are supporting post-pandemic growth.
However, economists have been raising questions about the discrepancy between the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data and the various labor-related numbers revealed throughout the month.
Plus, many are questioning why the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening campaign failed to diminish labor demand.
Several experts say they have now determined what is causing better-than-expected labor numbers.It appears the high numbers may have to do with double-counting.The NFP report contains the results of two surveys , the Establishment Survey and the Household Survey. Slay the latest News for free! The former measures employment, hours, and earnings through a sample of businesses.The latter gauges “the labor force status of the civilian noninstitutional population with demographic detail” using a sample of households.The key difference between these two surveys is the methodology, as the Establishment Survey allows for double-counting.In other words, it will identify multiple jobholders for every position, meaning that a person with two jobs will count for two jobs.But the Household Survey will only consider an individual with two jobs as one job.BLS researchers will also count someone shifting from self-employment to working for a company as a new position, despite the lack of net gains in employment.According to EJ Antoni, a research fellow for regional economics in the Center for Data Analysis at The […]
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