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Easy come, easy go?
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Guess who is the most overbought?
Not tech, not SPX, but small caps. Nobody speaks about small caps these days, but the squeeze has been extreme and we have not seen the Russell this overbought in “forever”… The 2 sigma signal
The 6%+ 4W performance of the SPX is getting awfully close to the +2SD level, which has actually been quite meaningful. Jefferies looked at the performance after such a ST rally and found that generally, performance is stellar. However, there are two caveats: 1) while the outcomes are typically positive, they are huge in either direction and 2) when the 6 month performance into the rally is negative, there is a much greater chance of negative outcomes after the initial 4W rally (performance in 2nd table). The not so shitty breadth
The squeeze has led to a huge move in the percentage of stocks trading above the 50 day moving average. Time for the excessive optimism phase? “Attractive valuations”
Mislav: “global equities continue to offer a considerable cushion vs bond yields. Global equity P/E is below average, while bond yields are still significantly below average” Wilson warning
MS’s macro guru is basically telling you to be careful what you wish for. He sees inflation falling faster than what the market is pricing in currently. So far this has had a positive effect on multiples, but Wilson reminds us: “…we see falling inflation weighing on profits as operating leverage starts to reverse. Just like most underestimated the positive effects of inflation on operating leverage, we think they are underestimating the negative effects from inflation falling “. The question is if […]
Will America-First News Outlets Make it to 2023?
Things are looking grim for conservative and populist news sites.
There’s something happening behind the scenes at several popular conservative news outlets. 2021 was bad, but 2022 is proving to be disastrous for news sites that aren’t “playing ball” with the corporate media narrative. It’s being said that advertisers are cracking down, forcing some of the biggest ad networks like Google and Yahoo to pull their inventory from conservative outlets. This has had two major effects. First, it has cooled most conservative outlets from discussing “taboo” topics like Pandemic Panic Theater, voter fraud, or The Great Reset. Second, it has isolated those ad networks that aren’t playing ball.
Certain topics are anathema for most ad networks. Speaking out against vaccines or vaccine mandates is a certain path to being demonetized. Highlighting voter fraud in the 2020 and future elections is another instant advertising death penalty. Throw in truthful stories about climate change hysteria, Critical Race Theory, and the border crisis and it’s easy to understand how difficult it is for America-First news outlets to spread the facts, share conservative opinions, and still pay the bills.
Without naming names, I have been told of several news outlets who have been forced to either consolidate with larger organizations or who have backed down on covering certain topics out of fear of being “canceled” by the ad networks. I get it. This is a business for many of us and it’s not very profitable. Those of us who do this for a living are often barely squeaking by, so loss of additional revenue can often mean being forced to make cuts. That means not being able to cover the topics properly. Its a Catch-22: Tell the truth and lose the money necessary to keep telling the truth, or avoid the truth and make enough money to survive. Those who have chosen survival simply aren’t able to spread the truth properly.
We will never avoid the truth. The Lord will provide if it is His will. Our job is simply to share the facts, spread the Gospel, and educate as many Americans as possible while exposing the forces of evil.
To those who have the means, we ask that you please donate. We have options available now, but there is no telling when those options will cancel us. We have our GivingFuel page. There have been many who have been canceled by PayPal, but for now it’s still an option. Your generosity is what keeps these sites running and allows us to get the truth to the masses. We’ve had great success in growing but we know we can do more with your assistance.
Thank you, and God Bless!
JD Rucker