Easy come, easy go?
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Guess who is the most overbought?
Not tech, not SPX, but small caps. Nobody speaks about small caps these days, but the squeeze has been extreme and we have not seen the Russell this overbought in “forever”… The 2 sigma signal
The 6%+ 4W performance of the SPX is getting awfully close to the +2SD level, which has actually been quite meaningful. Jefferies looked at the performance after such a ST rally and found that generally, performance is stellar. However, there are two caveats: 1) while the outcomes are typically positive, they are huge in either direction and 2) when the 6 month performance into the rally is negative, there is a much greater chance of negative outcomes after the initial 4W rally (performance in 2nd table). The not so shitty breadth
The squeeze has led to a huge move in the percentage of stocks trading above the 50 day moving average. Time for the excessive optimism phase? “Attractive valuations”
Mislav: “global equities continue to offer a considerable cushion vs bond yields. Global equity P/E is below average, while bond yields are still significantly below average” Wilson warning
MS’s macro guru is basically telling you to be careful what you wish for. He sees inflation falling faster than what the market is pricing in currently. So far this has had a positive effect on multiples, but Wilson reminds us: “…we see falling inflation weighing on profits as operating leverage starts to reverse. Just like most underestimated the positive effects of inflation on operating leverage, we think they are underestimating the negative effects from inflation falling “. The question is if […]
We Often Feel Like David Taking on Giants
Today’s Goliath is the Mainstream Media Industrial Complex that brainwashes the masses.
Our mission is very straightforward: To counter the false narratives and nefarious agendas destroying America today. It isn’t easy for obvious reasons; despite incredible growth over the last year we are still a very tiny fish in a huge media pond. But we’re fighting and we will continue to do so, Lord willing, for as long as we possibly can. The battle for America’s present and future is too important for us to back down to the giants that stand in our way.
We need help. I don’t want to say “desperately,” but the need is definitely great. If you have the means, please donate through our GivingFuel page, PayPal, or our Substack page. Your generosity is what keeps these sites running and allows us to get the truth to the masses. We’ve had great success in growing but we know we can do more with your assistance.
Thank you, and God Bless!