Risk management above all
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SPX – now what?
We are above the magical 4k level, but huge up FOMC days have tended to revert lower recently. Let’s see what happens from here, but the SPX managed closing above the 4k resistance and the negative trend line that has been in place since early May. 4050 is the next short term resistance, but there is nothing really big until 4150. Note the 100 day coming in around 4120. Slightly less “implicitly short”
Equity positioning has ticked higher recently, but we there is much more room to “grow”. Especially the systematic “bros” could get “motivated” to buy should we take out the 4k level in SPX. Volatility control bros – time to step it up?
SPX 1 month vs 3 month realized vol spread has come down sharply over past weeks. This is feeding over into volatility controlled funds and will all things equal lead to increased risk taking. Second chart shows this crowd has increased equity allocations, but we are far from “normal”. There is room to buy
Positioning remains rather depressed among many strategies. Good luck explaining to the boss being massively underweight equities post moves like we saw today. Will FOMO kick in soon? Never forget this bid Only a few days left to even worse liquidity A mild recession is already priced in Worth remembering what Kolanovic said earlier in the week: “A mild recession is already in the price, peak Fed pricing is behind us: While […]
They’re Trying to Shut Us Down
Over the last several months, I’ve lost count of how many times the powers-that-be have tried to shut us down. They’ve sent hackers at us, forcing us to take extreme measures on web security. They sent attorneys after us, but thankfully we’re not easily intimidated by baseless accusations or threats. They’ve even gone so far as to make physical threats. Those can actually be a bit worrisome but Remington has me covered.
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