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TME Daily: Consensus complacency turns into complicated confusion
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Can the squeeze be complete without “risky” rally?
Risky” factors (e.g. high vol, low profitability, small cap, high earnings variability, etc) stopped underperforming in mid-May, but have yet to see a recovery that has often followed similar drawdowns (even if it was just a bear market rally). Mega-cap growth: room to re-lever Macro mavens shorter equities now than at height of COVID
Chart shows global macro HF beta to MSCI world equities. The interpretation would be that macro HFs are shorter equities now than any time in the past 2.5 years. With this macro back-drop, what’s the big worry?
The very short summary from GS Macro on the US economic outlook make you wonder where all the fear comes from in the investment community. GS: “In the US, we expect Q4/Q4 growth to slow to 0.4% in 2022, driven by a large fiscal drag and a negative impulse from tighter financial conditions. We see a 30% probability of entering a recession over the next year and nearly even odds at a two-year horizon. We expect core PCE inflation to fall to 4.4% by end-2022, although further supply chain disruptions, stronger wage growth, or firmer shelter inflation could keep inflation somewhat higher for longer”
Cloud SaaS’ wild ride Bernstein: Sentiment signalling short-term pain followed by long-term gains for equities
Bernstein’s sentiment signals are currently giving mixed messages. Bernstein: “The short-term sentiment indicator is currently neutral, and has not yet seen capitulation in outflows from equity funds. In fact outflows, excluding Europe, have only just begun. Our longer-term equity sentiment indicator is at extreme pessimistic levels which suggests […]
Will America-First News Outlets Make it to 2023?
Things are looking grim for conservative and populist news sites.
There’s something happening behind the scenes at several popular conservative news outlets. 2021 was bad, but 2022 is proving to be disastrous for news sites that aren’t “playing ball” with the corporate media narrative. It’s being said that advertisers are cracking down, forcing some of the biggest ad networks like Google and Yahoo to pull their inventory from conservative outlets. This has had two major effects. First, it has cooled most conservative outlets from discussing “taboo” topics like Pandemic Panic Theater, voter fraud, or The Great Reset. Second, it has isolated those ad networks that aren’t playing ball.
Certain topics are anathema for most ad networks. Speaking out against vaccines or vaccine mandates is a certain path to being demonetized. Highlighting voter fraud in the 2020 and future elections is another instant advertising death penalty. Throw in truthful stories about climate change hysteria, Critical Race Theory, and the border crisis and it’s easy to understand how difficult it is for America-First news outlets to spread the facts, share conservative opinions, and still pay the bills.
Without naming names, I have been told of several news outlets who have been forced to either consolidate with larger organizations or who have backed down on covering certain topics out of fear of being “canceled” by the ad networks. I get it. This is a business for many of us and it’s not very profitable. Those of us who do this for a living are often barely squeaking by, so loss of additional revenue can often mean being forced to make cuts. That means not being able to cover the topics properly. Its a Catch-22: Tell the truth and lose the money necessary to keep telling the truth, or avoid the truth and make enough money to survive. Those who have chosen survival simply aren’t able to spread the truth properly.
We will never avoid the truth. The Lord will provide if it is His will. Our job is simply to share the facts, spread the Gospel, and educate as many Americans as possible while exposing the forces of evil.
To those who have the means, we ask that you please donate. We have options available now, but there is no telling when those options will cancel us. We have our GivingFuel page. There have been many who have been canceled by PayPal, but for now it’s still an option. Your generosity is what keeps these sites running and allows us to get the truth to the masses. We’ve had great success in growing but we know we can do more with your assistance.
Thank you, and God Bless!
JD Rucker