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A quick glance at the lay of the land, heading into the weekend. Let’s begin with Quinnipiac’s latest batch of data on President Biden’s job approval and the 2022 generic ballot. The Biden numbers are a bit worse than the Real Clear Politics average, but not by much. Check out the data points on independents and Hispanics in particular: Biden’s standing is lower among Latinos than voters overall, and Republicans and Democrats are virtually tied among this emerging demographic group. We’ve been covering the movement of, er , ‘ LatinX ‘ voters away from Democrats for awhile now, and here’s another breadcrumb leading toward the conclusion that the shift is real . Now, from another data set , look at some of these state-level numbers: The president’s national approval level is nearly identical to the Q-poll finding, and even more dismal among indies. But if Biden really winds up at 40 percent or worse in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, it’ll be a challenge for Democrats to hold the Senate. Democrats may run a bit ahead of Biden in November — might — but if these outcomes are even close to where things settle by the fall, they’d need to run way ahead of Biden. That would require big-time turnout from the base. And that seems… unlikely at the moment: At the end of October, Republicans held an 11-percentage-point advantage in voter enthusiasm. By January, that margin had ticked up to 14 points. Now, according to the most recent NBC News poll, it has swelled to 17 — a massive advantage that has foreshadowed devastating losses in Congress in prior years. The latest poll would be bad enough for Democrats. But it’s the trend line that is especially grim, seemingly impervious to a series of events — including […]
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