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While central banks, tenured economists and the financial media are doing everything in their propaganda power to convince ordinary Americans (who don’t have the privilege of charging their Federal Reserve debit card when shopping at the grocery store) that the current phase of galloping inflation – to avoid the dreaded ” h ” word – is merely transitory (although it now appears that even the Fed is getting some doubts writing in its semi-annual monetary policy report that inflation is ” more lasting but likely still temporary ” until proven otherwise, of course), the shocking reality on the ground is that the Fed has effectively lost control over near-term inflation expectations, as the NY Fed’s latest survey of consumer expectations reveals.
According to the August, installment of this closely watched survey, consumer inflation expectations for one year ahead hit a fresh all-time high for this series of 5.18 in August, up sharply from 4.84% in June. “Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point to 5.2% in August, the tenth consecutive monthly increase and a new series high” the NY Fed said without a trace of irony even as its economists plead with the public that this spike will last at most a few more months, hence “transitory.” But while the median 1 Year expected inflation rate was a “modest” 4.8%, the upper end of the 25%/75% dispersion range was a mindblowing 8.7%, meaning that at least 25% of respondents see inflation surging to nearly double digits! The Fed survey showed that Americans are expecting higher rates of price increases for virtually all items, like rent and food, that make up a big chunk of the consumer-price basket, and can’t be substituted. Looking at a breakdown of inflation expectations by component, over the next year consumers expect gasoline prices to rise 9.19%; food prices to rise 7.92%; medical costs to rise 9.67%; the price of a college education to rise 7.03%; rent prices to rise 9.99%; medical care to increase by 0.2% to 9.7%. While the expected price of college education decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 7.0%, offsetting […]
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JD Rucker – EIC