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14 Things You Should Never Buy at Costco Old Enough to Ace This Vintage Items Quiz? 85% Fail This coming week, many professional political observers expect to see former Detroit Police Chief, James Craig, enter the Republican primary for governor of Michigan. Some within the state’s GOP establishment are celebrating the news. They shouldn’t because the math actually shows that a Craig nomination would ensure four more years of Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
Let’s start with the good news: Governor Whitmer is losing to the generic Republican. The bad news? James Craig underperforms the generic Republican. And that’s before voters learn that he is weak on the Second Amendment; was the enforcer-in-chief of Whitmer’s draconian, unconstitutional lockdowns; and is celebrated by Democrats for his sanctuary city policies.
A public poll released in June shows incumbent Whitmer’s image and job approval declining among Michigan voters, driving an 11-point deficit to a “generic Republican.” The Michigan GOP released a poll through Charlie Leduff within the same week (June 8, 2021) showing James Craig underperforming the generic Republican.
This past Saturday on Leduff’s radio program, Jason Roe, the former executive director of the Michigan GOP, weighed in on the gubernatorial race. Roe detailed the party’s meetings with Craig, and shared that they had conducted internal polling showing drawing earning anywhere from 15-25 percent of the vote in the city of Detroit.
As Roe points out, Michigan’s 2020 certified election results show Donald Trump getting 5 percent of the vote in Detroit—nearly doubling 2018 Republican gubernatorial nominee Bill Schuette’s performance in the city.
Upon being asked if he thinks Craig is viable in Detroit, Roe claimed that Craig could earn 15 percent or better in Detroit. He concludes if that’s the case, there “is no vote math the Democrats can get to win” the state.
Except that’s not really true.
If you believe Detroit’s 2020 statewide certified results, President Trump would have lost the state by 103,084 votes even if he had earned 15 percent of the vote in Detroit. If Trump had earned 25 percent of the vote, he would have still lost Michigan to Biden by 51,781 votes (For […]
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JD Rucker – EIC