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Writing at the Wall Street Journal this week, Nicole Saphier has a very simple message for the CDC. “Dr. Fauci, Tear Off These Masks.” This new spin on a famous speech by Ronald Reagan wasn’t some sort of April Fools joke. The author lays out a very cogent argument as to why we are already much closer to the point where there’s little to no benefit from vaccinated people wearing face masks than most health officials and politicians are willing to admit. Continuing to enforce these mandates at that point would be little more than bureaucratic oppression. And the target date for ending the mandates should be Memorial Day weekend.
When will it be safe to shop at a grocery store or show up at the office without wearing a mask? Sooner than most experts are willing to admit. If the coronavirus epidemic in the U.S. continues on its current trajectory, the need for masks outside particular local outbreak areas will pass in a matter of weeks.
One way to think about the problem is by analogy to seasonal influenza. Hardly anybody wears a mask in ordinary settings to protect against the flu, and no one is required to do so. The worst flu seasons of recent years saw an average of 220 deaths a day nationwide. The seven-day moving average for Covid-19 daily deaths hovers around 900, still considerably worse. But that’s a 78% reduction since January, and the trends are favorable almost everywhere in the country. When the 14-day rolling average of daily Covid deaths has come down below flu level, which may happen within the next month or two, we should adjust our thinking about the coronavirus accordingly.
Nicole Saphier isn’t speaking as some armchair quarterback with a newspaper column. She’s a physician at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center and an assistant professor at Weill Cornell Medical College.
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